Past Event

"Insurance pricing: What can it do? An agent-based analysis of insurance demand under adjusted flood insurance premiums" Linda Geaves

This study analyses the outcomes for insurance demand as government interventions in the UK seek to make flood insurance more widely affordable through application of subsidies and pricing signals under a scheme called Flood Re. Our overall aim was to test the efficiency and equity of Flood Re in comparison to other insurance pricing structures when known public behaviour traits are internalised within an intertemporal choice, weighted-value model. Applying prospect theory, householders make decisions on whether to purchase insurance informed by multiple reference points which influence the value of prospects, and weighted probabilities which are sensitive to past experiences of flood events and display preference towards certain outcomes. Model outputs were categorised by Council Tax Band (a measure of house price commonly used as an indicator of wealth in the UK) in order to understand both the magnitude and distribution of benefits. Results indicate that Flood Re only marginally increases the demand for insurance, that the distribution of benefits are weighted towards more wealthy sectors of the population, but also that if the cap is set to an appropriate level householders will begin, and continue, to purchase insurance even after the adjustments of insurance pricing seize. We recommend that in order to achieve the aim of making insurance more widely affordable a cap determined by an arbitrary indicator of wealth is inefficient and inequitable, and suggest that a local authority insurance scheme should be developed to cater for those who currently cannot afford insurance.

Details:

12 October 2015 10:00 - 11:00


Location

INET Oxford

Eagle House, Walton Well Road, Oxford, OX2 6ED