How sea-level change will vary in the future is a pertinent social, economic and political issue with significant implications for coastal protection and adaptation. Sea-level change is an integrated response to the climate system due to changes in radiative forcing. The total sea level can be considered as the sum of various components, which vary in time as climate changes and in space so the ocean conforms to an equipotential surface.
In this talk I will outline what these components are, how they are projected to vary and how the total sea-level will vary throughout the 21st century for three scenarios, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and a plausible threshold beyond the conventional limit of RCP 8.5. I will also discuss the uncertainties associated with individual sea-level components, their cumulative effect upon the total uncertainty, which varies through time and is non-spatial.
Luke Jackson's profile: http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/people/706