Working Papers

Title Date
The impact of ice melting uncertainty on damage risks for major coastal cities
Sifting through the ASHE: job polarization and earnings inequality in the UK, 1975-2015
A Nowcast Error Taxonomy
What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues
Imperfect Knowledge, Unpredictability and the Failures of Modern Macroeconomics
Consumption, household portfolios and the housing market in France
Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming
Wealth, Top Incomes and Inequality
Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter
How quickly can we adapt to change? An assessment of hurricane damage mitigation efforts using forecast uncertainty
Network Externalities and Compatibility Among Standards: A Replicator Dynamic and Simulation Analysis
Policy analysis, forediction, and forecast failure
Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?
Forecasting and Forecast Narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports
Data revisions and real-time probabilistic forecasting of macroeconomic variables
Macroeconomics and Consumption
How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts
Leapfrogging: A Survey of Nature and Economic Implications of Mobile Money
The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics
Tightness of M-estimators for multiple linear regression in time series
Heteroskedasticity/Autocorrelation Consistent Standard Errors and Reliability of Inference
Top incomes in East Africa before and after independence
The distribution of top incomes in former British West Africa
Macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market
JAS-mine: A new Java platform for agent-based and microsimulation modelling
Using social media to identify market inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair
Quantifying the Uncertainty around Break Dates in Models using Indicator Saturation
Spline-DCS for forecasting trade volume in high-frequency financial data
Asymptotic theory for Beta-t-GARCH
Out-of-Sample Paleo-Climate Simulations: Testing Hypothesis About the Mid-Brunhes Event, the Stage 11 Paradox, and Orbital Variations
Testing for time-varying predictive accuracy using bias-corrected indicator saturation
General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling and Indicator Saturation with the R Package gets (version 0.7)
Improving the teaching of econometrics
Fiscal Welfare and Welfare State Reform: a research agenda
World CO2 Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios