How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

Date: 01 March 2018

Experience curves are widely used to predict the cost benefits of increasing the deployment of a technology. But how good are such forecasts? Can one predict their accuracy a priori? In this paper we answer these questions by developing a method to make distributional forecasts for experience curves. We test our method using a dataset with proxies for cost and experience for 51 products and technologies and show that it works reasonably well. The framework that we develop helps clarify why the experience curve method often gives similar results to simply assuming that costs decrease exponentially. To illustrate our method we make a distributional forecast for prices of solar photovoltaic modules.

J. Doyne Farmer François Lafond Aimee Gotway Bailey Jan David Bakker Dylan Rebois Rubina Zadourian Patrick McSharry

Complexity Economics Economics of Sustainability

How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts


Type: working-paper

Lafond, F., Bailey, A.G., Bakker, J.D., Rebois, D., Zadourian, R., McSharry, P. and Farmer, J.D. (2018). “How Well Do Experience Curves Predict Technological Progress? A Method For Making Distributional Forecasts”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol 128 (March) pp. 104-117.


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