Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Date: 02 April 2018

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes...

Felix Pretis Myles R. Allen Moritz Schwarz Kevin Tang Karsten Haustein

Economic Modelling Economics of Sustainability

Economics of Sustainability

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming


Type: paper

Pretis, F., Schwarz, M., Tang, K., Haustein, K. and Allen, M.R. (2018). "Uncertain Impacts on Economic Growth When Stabilizing Global Temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming". Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376:20160460


View Document