icon for Economic Modelling (EMoD)

Economic Modelling (EMoD)

Overview

Having highlighted major flaws in extant macroeconomic models, researchers in EMoD are investigating the changes needed to economic analyses, policy, empirical modelling and forecasting when there are sudden, or very rapid, unanticipated changes in economies. To do so, they are developing powerful new methods of empirical economic modelling, nowcasting and forecasting that are robust after crises, with appropriate automatic modelling software to implement the new approaches. 
 

About the Programme

The 21st century began with the largest global economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression almost 80 years earlier. Many factors have been blamed for this disastrous outcome, but inadequate economic models and a failure to forecast the crash are partly at fault, exacerbated by poor policy responses, precipitating the need for a paradigm shift. In fact, economic analyses, policy, empirical modelling and forecasting all confront major difficulties when sudden, or very rapid, unanticipated changes occur in economies. EMoD researchers engage with academics and policymakers to disseminate their work and show how their approach differs substantively from conventional methods. Since its inception, policymaker interactions include the central banks of Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Cyprus, Greece, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland and UK; US Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank, World Bank, IMF, Bank for International Settlements, Statistics Norway and Statistics South Africa. EMoD researchers actively participate in, and present at, International Economic and Econometric Conferences, as well as delivering seminar presentations. The program also addresses climate change as that too has major implications for economies worldwide. There have been more than 3,000 citations of our researchers work since the programme’s inception. 

For enquiries please contact Angela Wenham:

angela.wenham@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

+44(0)1865 278654

Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK

Who's Involved?

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Janine Aron

Senior Research Fellow

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Vanessa Berenguer-Rico

Senior Research Fellow

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Jennifer Castle

Senior Research Fellow

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Jurgen Doornik

Senior Research Fellow

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James Duffy

Senior Research Fellow

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David F. Hendry

Co-Director of Economic Modelling

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Luke Jackson

Senior Research Officer

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Andrew Martinez

Doctoral Student

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Sophocles Mavroeidis

Senior Research Fellow

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John Muellbauer

Senior Research Fellow

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Bent Nielsen

Co-Director of Economic Modelling

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Felix Pretis

Associate

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James Reade

Associate

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Moritz Schwarz

Associate

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Lisa Thalheimer

Research Assistant

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Angela Wenham

Programme Administrator for Economic Modelling