Limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5C requires an unprecedented reduction
in fossil fuel consumption. To track the fossil fuel industry and its individual companies
against 1.5°C-consistent pathways, we propose a new methodology that complements
existing methodologies in four main ways: it uses publicly available data, the focus is on
the absolute emissions, rather than carbon intensities associated with their use; it includes
coal which is commonly excluded; and it is applicable regardless of whether the company
has set a target. We evaluate the largest 142 producers of coal, oil, and gas against three
1.5°C IPCC SSP (RCP-1.9) pathways from 2010. We find that these 142 companies would
produce up to 68%, 34% and 53% more than their cumulative production budgets for
coal, oil, and gas respectively by 2050 if they continued the trend of the average growth
rate of 2010-2018.
Rekker, S., Chen, G., Heede, R., Ives., M., Wade, B. & Greig, C. (2022). 'Evaluating fossil fuel companies’ alignment with 1.5°C climate pathways'. under review in Nature Climate Change.