Impossible Macroeconomic Trinity: The Challenge to Economic Governance in the Eurozone

Abstract:

Europe now faces a new impossible macroeconomic trinity: it is no longer possible to combine monetary union, German political requirements and coherent economic analysis. Economic analysis shows that there must be more inflation in Germany, a significant fiscal expansion in Germany, a significant easing of austerity in the GIIPS countries and a write-down of much of the debt of southern European sovereigns. These changes will be resisted by Germany. But they are necessary if the monetary union is to survive.