Abstract:
The OBR has made systematic large forecast errors since 2010. Our approach corrects large forecast errors occurring after unexpected shifts. It can be implemented rapidly even if updating a forecasting system is difficult. Illustrated here by improved forecasting of UK productivity relative to OBR.
Citation:
Castle, J.L., Hendry, D.F., and Martinez, A.B. (2026), 'Improving Forecasting Accuracy at the OBR: Submission to the Treasury Committee Enquiry ‘The OBR: 15 years on’', University of Oxford, https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:74924aa8-c863-4109-bb04-61b2d5781047/files/sfj2364511