The National Infrastructure Commission has been tasked by the U.K. Government to provide expert, independent advice on pressing concerns regarding the UK’s infrastructure and to provide in-depth assessments of her national infrastructure needs up to 2050. A cornerstone of this work is the development of the National Infrastructure Assessment, which will evaluate Britain’s future infrastructure needs under a range of scenarios of future uncertainty, exploring alternative driving forces and pressures on infrastructure. Scenarios of future infrastructure supply and demand have been developed by the NIC based on empirical evidence regarding past trends and analyses of key drivers of demand, including changes in the economy, population and demographics, climate and environment, and technology. In this manuscript we focus on comparing estimates of demand for infrastructure services around the key sectors of energy and transport. These scenarios are tested and analysed using the National Infrastructure Systems Model (NISMOD) developed by the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium and departmental models including those used by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, and the Department for Transport.
Ives, M.c., Usher, W., Hall, J.W., Siberman, A., Letti, B., Large, J., Blainey, S., Choundry, M., Baruah, P. & Robson, C. (2017). 'Modelling future scenarios of infrastructure demand for the UK’s National Infrastructure Assessment'. Conference: International Symposia of Next Generation Infrastructure (ISNGI) 2017, London.