The ‘climate Kuznets curve’: A critique

Abstract:

The ‘climate Kuznets curve’ relates the log of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, usually measured just by carbon dioxide (CO2), to the log of GDP and that squared in an inverse U-shaped relationship. In an all-electric world, there would be little relationship, as GDP would not be generated using fossil fuels. Rather the relation is between anthropogenic GHGs and fossil fuel use as we demonstrate for the United Kingdom, as well as demonstrating the non-constancy of the ‘climate Kuznets curve’. The danger of falsely believing GDP growth is the problem, not fossil fuel use, is that cutting GDP is mistakenly seen as a ‘solution’ to the climate crisis, leading to opposition to the green transition and facing unnecessary reductions in living standards if wrongly adopted.