In this short paper John Muellbauer models the potential near-term shock to U.S. consumption from the effects of the pandemic and required public health measures. The results show an 18% fall in quarterly consumption and 15% drop in labour income. While these effects are highly approximate, they indicate impacts of a magnitude far greater than those experienced during the Global Financial Crisis 2007-9 and more similar to those experienced during the Great Depression. Policy responses to prevent such a collapse must be immediate and of a similar magnitude.


Muellbauer, J. (2020). 'The coronavirus pandemic and U.S. consumption'. INET Oxford COVID-19 Blog. 23 March 2020.
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