Towards UK Systemic Resilience to International Cascading Climate Risks: The Role of Infrastructure and Supply Chains

Abstract:

The UK’s security and prosperity depend on complex global supply chains – food, critical minerals, and manufactured goods – and benefit from stable macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. However, climate change, biodiversity loss, and environmental degradation are rapidly reshaping global risks. This report focuses on how infrastructure and supply chains contribute to global systemic climate risks, and how investing in resilient infrastructure and natural capital can mitigate these impacts. The transport and supply of key goods rely on both physical infrastructure (ports, roads, electricity) and natural capital (ecosystems, green infrastructure). Global development and all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are directly or indirectly linked to infrastructure – 72% of SDG targets depend on it. Yet, this infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change and risks of disruption, leaving financial institutions, including insurers and investors, increasingly exposed.

The research has two objectives:

1. Build evidence for how investment in resilient infrastructure and natural capital in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) can enhance the UK’s systemic resilience.

2. Strengthen understanding of how UK foreign policy and development finance can help close the resilience gap in EMDE infrastructure.

This report was supported by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and prepared under the Oxford Martin Systemic Resilience Initiative.