Overview

A growing number of economists and social scientists view the economy as a ‘complex adaptive system’ - a distributed network of dynamically interacting, heterogeneous agents, whose behaviours, strategies and relationships evolve over time. Under such a view the economy is more akin to an ecosystem, the brain, or the internet than to the mechanistic models of traditional theory.

The Complexity Economics Programme is applying leading-edge tools from complex systems science to generate new insights into a wide range of economic problems. The group utilises methods such as network analysis and agent-based computer simulations to incorporate realistic portrayals of human behaviour and institutions in its models and better understand how economic systems evolve dynamically over time. This approach enables researchers to see how macro patterns in the economy, such as financial crises, emerge out of micro level behaviours, interactions, and structures. The group is applying these techniques to issues including financial system stability, innovation, and growth, and is also collaborating with the Economics, Inequality & Opportunity programme on inequality and employment, and the Economics of Sustainability programme on issues related to sustainable growth.

The group includes scholars from a number of disciplines, including economics, maths, physics, geography and computer science. The programme is partnered with Oxford’s School of Geography, Mathematical Institute, Department of Computer Science and the Saïd Business School. The programme’s work has generated significant interest from policymakers. Interactions with policymakers include the Bank of England, European Central Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Commission, IMF, OECD, UK HM Treasury, UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, US Department of Energy, US Senate, and various policy think tanks in the US and UK.

If you would like to keep up to date with our publications, news and events, follow @inet-complexity.bsky.social on BlueSky, @INET_Complexity on X (formerly Twitter) or contact complexity@inet.ox.ac.uk for more information.

Related Projects


Recent Publications

Sept 2024
INET Working Paper
No. 2024-06 - Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model
Samuel Wiese ,  Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ,  Joel Dyer ,  Jose Moran ,  Marco Pangallo ,  François Lafond ,  John Muellbauer ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Sept 2024
Report
The effects of BBMs
John Muellbauer ,  Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa
Sept 2024
Journal
Approximate Bayesian Computation with Path Signatures
in Proceedings of the Fortieth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Joel Dyer ,  Patrick Cannon ,  Sebastian M Schmon
Sept 2024
Journal
Large language models reduce public knowledge sharing on online Q&A platforms
in PNAS Nexus
R. Maria del Rio-Chanona ,  Nadzeya Laurentsyeva ,  Johannes Wachs
Sept 2024
INET Working Paper
Aug 2024
Journal
The need for better statistical testing in data-driven energy technology modeling
in Joule
Lennart Baumgärtner ,  Rupert Way ,  Matthew Ives ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Jul 2024
Paper
SignedLouvain: Louvain for signed networks
John Pougué-Biyong ,  Renaud Lambiotte
Jul 2024
Journal
Jun 2024
Journal
Timeliness criticality in complex systems
in nature physics
Jose Moran ,  Matthijs Romeijnders ,  Pierre Le Doussal ,  Frank P. Pijpers ,  Utz Weitzel ,  Debabrata Panja ,  Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Jun 2024
Journal
Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution
in Industrial and Corporate Change
Jangho Yang ,  Torsten Heinrich ,  Julian Winkler ,  François Lafond ,  Pantelis Koutroumpis ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Apr 2024
Journal
Making resource adequacy a private good: The good, the bad, and the ugly
in Joule
Xiyu Ren ,  Iacopo Savelli ,  Thomas Morstyn
Apr 2024
Report
Power sector futures in China: A multi-model approach to understanding China’s carbon-neutral pathways and power sector reform
Arabella Miller-Wang ,  Hongyu Zhang ,  Peter Barbrook-Johnson ,  Yixuan Zhang ,  Pim Vercoulen ,  Femke Nijsse ,  Yuyan Weng ,  Simon Sharpe ,  Jean-Francois Mercure ,  Michael Grubb ,  Xiliang Zhang
Apr 2024
Journal
Model-based financial regulations impair the transition to net-zero carbon emissions
in Nature Climate Change
Matteo Gasparini ,  Matthew Ives ,  Ben Carr ,  Sophie Fry ,  Eric Beinhocker
Mar 2024
Journal
Reconstructing supply networks
in Journal of Physics: Complexity
Luca Mungo ,  Alexandra Brintrup ,  Diego Garlaschelli ,  François Lafond
Mar 2024
Journal
Automation and taxation
in Oxford Economic Papers
Kerstin Hötte ,  Angelos Theodorakopoulos ,  Pantelis Koutroumpis
Mar 2024
INET Working Paper
No. 2024-02 - Measuring artificial intelligence: A systematic assessment and implications for governance
Kerstin Hötte ,  Taheya Tarannum ,  Vilhelm Verendel ,  Lauren Bennett
Mar 2024
Journal
Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?
in Journal of Economic Literature
Ian Goldin ,  Pantelis Koutroumpis ,  François Lafond ,  Julian Winkler
Mar 2024
Working Paper
The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model
Marco Bardoscia ,  Adrián Carro ,  Marc Hinterschweiger ,  Mauro Napoletano ,  Lilit Popoyan ,  Andrea Roventini ,  Arzu Uluc
Feb 2024
Journal
Black-box Bayesian inference for agent-based models
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Joel Dyer ,  Patrick Cannon ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Sebastian Schmon
Feb 2024
Journal
Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers
in Nature Energy
Peter Barbrook-Johnson ,  Jean-Francois Mercure ,  Simon Sharpe ,  Cristina Penasco ,  Cameron Hepburn ,  Laura Diaz Anadon ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Timothy M. Lenton
Jan 2024
Journal
Jan 2024
Journal
Jan 2024
Journal
Interventionally consistent surrogates for agent-based simulators
in NeurIPS 2024
Joel Dyer ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  Yorgos Felekis ,  Fabio Massimo Zennaro ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Theodoros Damoulas ,  Michael Wooldridge
Jan 2024
Journal
Population synthesis as scenario generation for simulation-based planning under uncertainty
in Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2024)
Joel Dyer ,  Arnau Quera-Bofarull ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Michael Wooldridge
Dec 2023
Working Paper
Discounting the distant future: What do historical bond prices imply about the long term discount rate?
J. Doyne Farmer ,  John Geanakoplos ,  Matteo Richiardi ,  Miquel Montero ,  Josep Perelló ,  Jaume Masoliver
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