As 2026 unfolds, the world appears to be sliding deeper into a moral vacuum—one shaped less by shared ideals than by the entrenchment of power, fear, and tribalism. In many countries, citizens feel increasingly untethered from intrinsic sources of meaning, and political discourse gravitates toward might rather than moral purpose. This drift is dangerous not only because it corrodes social cohesion, but because it makes societies vulnerable to “sleepwalking” into conflicts that none of them have consciously chosen, yet all of them will suffer from.
The digital sphere—now increasingly governed by opaque, fast-learning AI systems—amplifies these risks. AI-driven platforms optimise for engagement, and nothing engages faster than perceived threats from outsiders and reaffirmations of loyalty to insiders. The result is a planetary-scale machine for polarisation. It funnels money and power to a handful of dominant digital service providers while weakening society’s capacity for collective sense-making. As people grow accustomed to a world in which “might makes right,” they lose sight of the deeper necessity of working together across national and cultural divides to address shared global challenges: climate change, biodiversity collapse, financial fragility, cyber vulnerability, pandemics, and the governance of AI itself.
Yet within this vortex of reinforcing dysfunctions, a countervailing force is beginning to crystallise—the possibility of a world-spanning socio-political transformation. Its premise is simple: global challenges are collective challenges, and no nation, ideology, or bloc can solve them alone. If the world-spanning technological transformation is not complemented by a world-spanning socio-political transformation, then technology will deepen our divisions faster than policy can mend them. But if that transformation is embraced, 2026 may be remembered not only for worsening conflict, but for the early signs of a new global moral order based on cooperation, interdependence, and shared responsibility.
Five Emerging Patterns of a World-Spanning Socio-Political Transformation
Beneath the current dysfunctions, five patterns are emerging independently in countries around the world. These patterns differ in timing, culture, and politics, but they converge on a shared ethos: the recognition that global challenges are collective challenges, and that the twenty-first century will be shaped by societies that rediscover how to act together.
1. National politics could pivot from identity wars to capability-building.
The first pattern involves a shift in national politics. Governments long trapped in identity wars and culture-driven polarization are beginning to search for alternatives. Voters are increasingly tired of symbolic conflict and want tangible improvements in their lives. This has encouraged political leaders to focus less on ideological purity and more on building the capabilities that underpin human wellbeing: solidarity (S), agency (A), shared material gain (G), and environmental sustainability (E), SAGE for short. New performance metrics focused on SAGE make this possible.[1] Governments can now measure progress in multidimensional terms rather than relying solely on GDP or short-term economic indicators. Politically, this shift increases the legitimacy of administrations that deliver real improvements rather than rhetorical victories. It reduces the space for purely populist strategies. Socially, it rebuilds trust by directing public attention to problems people actually experience. Economically, it reorients public investment toward long-term resilience and productivity, laying the foundation for more inclusive and stable growth.
2. Civic cultures could shift toward localised co-creation.
The second pattern involves the transformation of civic culture. Around the world, communities are discovering that local problems are often best solved by local people. Citizens’ assemblies, neighbourhood councils, and other forms of participatory governance have begun to proliferate. These institutions are not theoretical experiments; they work. When people are brought into the same room to deliberate, rather than mobilized against each other online, tensions diminish, and solutions emerge that command broad legitimacy. Politically, this strengthens the democratic fabric by replacing passive citizenship with active co-creation. Socially, it repairs frayed community ties, especially among groups that feel excluded from the national discourse. Economically, it improves the allocation of resources by allowing local knowledge to guide policy, and it encourages the development of local innovation ecosystems that complement national strategies.
3. Businesses could realign with societal objectives.
A third, related pattern is emerging in the business world. Firms increasingly recognize that the old paradigm—pursue profit while externalising costs onto society and the environment—is no longer viable. Consumers, workers, and regulators are all pushing in the same direction: toward business models that integrate social purpose with commercial performance. New frameworks for corporate metrics allow companies to measure solidarity, agency, sustainability, and wellbeing alongside financial returns. Politically, this reduces the antagonism that has long defined relations between business and government. When firms’ strategic goals align with societal objectives, regulation shifts from confrontation to cooperation. Socially, these models create healthier workplaces, reduce resentment, and build corporate cultures that support worker agency and development. Economically, purpose-driven firms invest more in innovation that solves real problems—clean energy, digital rights, health, education—thereby contributing to long-term competitiveness.
4. Faith traditions, cultural institutions, and education systems could reawaken their role in moral formation.
The fourth pattern centres on the resurgence of moral narratives. In a digital ecosystem that has monetised anger and tribalism, the institutions traditionally responsible for cultivating meaning—religious communities, cultural organisations, educational systems, and the media—are rediscovering their role. Around the world, faith leaders are articulating moral frameworks emphasising interdependence and responsibility. Educators are weaving planetary stewardship and civic ethics into curricula. Cultural institutions are building bridges of understanding across national and ideological divides. Politically, this shift helps reintroduce a vocabulary of shared purpose into public life. Socially, it counters the loneliness, cynicism, and fatalism that digital fragmentation has intensified. Economically, it fuels growing sectors—cultural exchange, lifelong learning, ethical design—that become part of a broader meaning-based economy.
5. Digital governance reforms could spread across continents.
The fifth pattern concerns digital governance. Countries are increasingly aware that digital markets, left to themselves, do not produce healthy democracies or competitive economies. Data asymmetries, surveillance-driven business models, and opaque AI systems undermine both agency and trust. As a result, major jurisdictions are pursuing reforms that give citizens meaningful control over their data, ensure transparency in AI training, and protect digital rights.[2] Once a few countries implement such reforms effectively, others tend to follow, generating a global cascade. Politically, this reduces the amplification of polarisation and strengthens democratic institutions. Socially, it promotes healthier digital environments where learning and deliberation replace manipulation and outrage. Economically, it increases competition, weakens incumbent monopolies, and accelerates innovation by levelling the digital playing field.
The Potential Upshot
These five patterns are not centrally coordinated, nor do they arise from a common ideology. They emerge because the world’s technological transformation has exposed vulnerabilities that no country can ignore. When national politics shift toward capability-building, communities gain the freedom to innovate locally. When communities grow stronger, businesses adapt to new expectations. When businesses behave responsibly, cultural and educational institutions find space to reassert moral narratives. And when moral narratives strengthen, democratic legitimacy supports digital reforms that give citizens back their agency.
If these patterns continue to unfold independently yet in parallel, the world may witness the beginnings of a socio-political transformation equal in scale to the technological one that preceded it. It will not eliminate conflict or competition. But it may enable humanity to confront the great collective challenges of the century—climate change, biodiversity loss, financial fragility, cyber insecurity, and the governance of AI—not as rival tribes but as interdependent communities. In a year overshadowed by moral uncertainty, this emerging architecture of cooperation may prove to be the most significant development of all.
Dennis Snower is an International Research fellow at the University of Oxford's Saïd Business School and Professorial Research Fellow at The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School. He is founding President of the Global Solutions Initiative and President Emeritus of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
