Assessing the relative costs of high-CCS and low-CCS pathways to 1.5 degrees

Abstract:

SUMMARY

• The costs of reaching net zero CO2 emissions around mid-century are calculated for pathways involving different amounts of carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• High-CCS pathways used in the study mitigate about half of today’s emissions in 2050 with CCS, and low-CCS pathways about one-tenth.
• From 2021 to 2050, taking a low-CCS pathway to net zero emissions will cost at least US$30 trillion less than taking a high-CCS route – saving approximately a trillion dollars per year.
• Land-use requirements for energy crops are smaller in low-CCS pathways by an area equivalent to half the size of Saudi Arabia.
• Assessing data from the past 40 years, no evidence is found for technological learning or associated cost reductions to date in any part of the CCS process – capture, transport or storage.
• CCS targeted to specific uses is still likely necessary to reach net zero, and in future for negative emissions.
• The current build rate of CCS needs accelerating even to meet levels in low-CCS net zero scenarios.
• Governments should rapidly scale up CCS but reserve it only for essential use cases.
• Using CCS to facilitate ongoing fossil fuel use would be, globally, highly economically damaging.