Abstract:
After a brief history of technological forecasting, I synthesize our work at the Institute for New Economic Thinking over the last decade developing time series models for performance curves. I conclude with ongoing efforts and a research agenda.
Citation:
Lafond, F. (2025), 'Forecasting technological progress', forthcoming in 'The Economy as an Evolving Complex System IV', SFI Press, INET Oxford Working Paper Series 2025-10.