Overview

The Macroeconomics & Finance programme is led by Emeritus Professors David Vines and John Muellbauer.

Related Projects

Financial systems

We focus on developing methodologies to measure systemic risk and evaluating policies to design a more resilient financial system.

Global economic governance

This work has explored the origins of the US-led liberal multilateral economic order in the post-war world and the threats which that order now faces, drawing on contributions from academic international relations (IR) scholars and international economists.

Macroeconomics and housing

We illuminate the roles of housing in the economy, emphasizing the importance of institutional arrangements (differing greatly between economies), and on how changes in house prices and mortgages in turn affect economic outcomes.

Rebuilding Trust in the Financial Services Industry

This research looks at both on understanding the necessary reforms to institutions, laws and regulations needed to ensure that those who work within the financial sector become, once again, more tightly bound by professional standards of behaviour.

The future of macroeconomics as an intellectual discipline

This work studies how DSGE models could be made much more nearly fit for purpose.

The political economy of macroeconomic management in Australia in the 20th Century

This work is studying the development of the set of ideas - and a set of policy-making capabilities - that made the Hawke-Keating reforms possible in Australia in the 1980s and 1990s.

Recent Publications

Feb 2025
Working Paper

New models for South African consumption, house prices, and mortgage and non-mortgage debt: Insights for financial stability and monetary transmission
Janine Aron , John Muellbauer

Feb 2025
Working Paper

Looking Back to 1991 Economic Forecasting: A Report to the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee
David F. Hendry

Nov 2024
Paper

Housing and Macroprudential Policy
John Muellbauer

Nov 2024
Blog

Towards Multilateralism 2.0
Dennis Snower

Nov 2024
Report

External Monetary Policy Review of the Czech National Bank: A Review of the Analytical Framework used for Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Monetary Policy Making
John Muellbauer , Janine Aron

Oct 2024
Video

David Vines: How to make a new Keynesian DSGE model that is fit for purpose: a constructive response to the criticisms of Joe Stiglitz
David Vines

Sept 2024
Report

The effects of BBMs
John Muellbauer , Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa

Sept 2024
Chapter

A Review of the Bernanke Report on Economic Forecasting at the Bank of England
David F. Hendry , John Muellbauer

Jun 2024
Journal

Global economic order and global economic governance
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Daniel Susskind , David Vines

May 2024
Journal

Forecasting the UK Top 1% Income Share in a Shifting World
in Economica
Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen A Doornik , David F. Hendry

May 2024
Journal

What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Jennifer L. Castle , David F. Hendry

Apr 2024
Journal

The effect of capacity constraints on the slope of the Phillips curve
in Oxford Economic Papers
Martin B Holm , Lars O Lerdalen , David Vines

Apr 2024
Blog

Svensson on house price overvaluation
Charles Goodhart , John Muellbauer

Mar 2024
Working Paper

War in the Ukraine and global inflationary pressures: learning about how to study fiscal and monetary cooperation in the face of supply side shocks
Christopher Adam , Sheung Kan (Paul) Luk , David Vines

Feb 2024
Blog

Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it
John Muellbauer

Jan 2024
Chapter

Keynes's Arc of Discovery: From The Economic Consequences to Bretton Woods
David Vines

Nov 2023
Journal

A Brief History of General-to-specific Modelling
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
David F. Hendry

Oct 2023
Journal

Improving models and forecasts after equilibrium-mean shifts
in International Journal of Forecasting
Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen A Doornik , David F. Hendry

Sept 2023
Journal

Monetary Policy Mistakes and Remedies: An Assessment Following the RBA Review
in Australian Economic Review
Ross Garnaut , David Vines

Aug 2023
Journal

The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation
in Energy Economics
Jennifer L. Castle , David F. Hendry , Andrew B. Martinez

Jun 2023
Journal

Common volatility shocks driven by the global carbon transition
in Journal of Econometrics
Susana Campos-Martins , David F. Hendry

Apr 2023
Journal

Creating a new sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism: why incentives, risk sharing, and CACs will all matter
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Gordon Menzies , David Vines

Apr 2023
Journal

Longer-term structural transitions and short-term macroeconomic adjustment: quantitative implications for the global financial system
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Warwick McKibbin , David Vines

Apr 2023
Journal

From the Bretton Woods system to the global nonsystem: the trials and tribulations of slow learning
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
David Vines , Paola Subacchi

Apr 2023
Journal

Fifty years on: what the Bretton Woods System can teach us about global macroeconomic policy-making
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Paola Subacchi , David Vines

Jul 2022
Paper

New Econometric Models for South African House Prices, Mortgage Debt and Residential Investment
Janine Aron , John Muellbauer

Jul 2022
Paper

Non-Performing Loans in South Africa: a Scoping paper for Future Model Development
John Muellbauer , Janine Aron

Jul 2022
Paper

Enhancing Financial Stability and Monetary Analysis in the Core Model of the SARB
Janine Aron , John Muellbauer

Apr 2022
Report

Keeping the world economy on track: Dealing with the short-term emergency and pursuing longer-term objectives
Paola Subacchi , David Vines , John Beirne , Andy Filardo , Mei Lin Fung , Alicia García Herrero , Simone Romano , Mina Toksoz , Paul van den Noord

Mar 2022
Blog

The global climate accelerator and the financial accelerator: Clarifying the commonalities, and implications from Putin’s war
John Muellbauer , Janine Aron

Jan 2022
Journal

The EU–UK trade and cooperation agreement: Lessons learnt
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Adam Bennett , David Vines

Jan 2022
Journal

Mitigation Policy for The Covid-19 Pandemic: Intertemporal Optimisation using an Seir Model
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Jan Maciejowski , Robert Rowthorn , Scott Sheffield , David Vines , Anne Williamson

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