Thumbnail for Did Value at Risk cause the crisis it was meant to avert?

Did Value at Risk cause the crisis it was meant to avert?

12 May 2016

What were the causes of the crisis of 2008?  We show that managing risk using the procedure recommended by Basel II, which is called Value at Risk, may have played a central role.    We make a very simple model for the banking system that captures the key elements of risk management under Value at Risk.  Providing the banks’ only take modest risks, the financial system remains stable.  But if they take higher risks, or if the banking sector gets larger, the market begins to spontaneously osc...

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Thumbnail for Improving the Teaching of Econometrics

Improving the Teaching of Econometrics

05 May 2016

A new paper by David Hendry and Grayham Mizon discusses the need for a major shift in the Econometrics curriculum to include all the 'modern' topics essential to understanding and conducting empirical macroeconomic research. Even undergraduate econometrics courses must allow for time series which exhibit both evolution from stochastic trends and abrupt changes from location shifts, confronting the 'non-stationarity revolution'. The complexity and size of the resulting equations, which need to include the theory...

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Thumbnail for Climate economic models are broke, but there might be a way to fix 'em

Climate economic models are broke, but there might be a way to fix 'em

03 May 2016

Are the models underpinning global efforts to tackle climate change fit for purpose? Alex Teytelboym and Penny Mealy of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School look at why a different approach should be tried. The economics of climate change - “the greatest market failure that the world has ever seen” – is one of the most difficult intellectual challenges facing economists today. As Nicholas Stern observed, climate economics must “be global, deal w...

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Thumbnail for Can we fix it? Solving Britain’s housing crisis

Can we fix it? Solving Britain’s housing crisis

29 Apr 2016

Britain’s housing crisis has been decades in the making, and is finally rising up the political agenda. But is this crisis really just confined to London and the South East, or is it spreading across Britain and other European countries? Which groups are on the receiving end of a lack of affordable housing? And how are living standards likely to be affected in the future if housing costs continue to rise? At an event at its headquarters in St James Park, the Resolution Foundation presented findings from its first ever h...

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Thumbnail for Innovation novelty and impact

Innovation novelty and impact

26 Apr 2016

What kinds of inventions tend to have the biggest impacts? Researchers from the INET Oxford and the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology recently looked at U.S. Patent Office filings going all the way back to 1836 to see if they could answer these questions.  The first thing they found was, despite what you might read in the media about the current rate of “innovation,” that the rate of novelty (as defined above by technology code pairings) has actually been pretty steady since 1836. Then they...

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Thumbnail for Twitter and the Stock News Echo Chamber that Whips up Volatility

Twitter and the Stock News Echo Chamber that Whips up Volatility

18 Apr 2016

Anyone watching the stock market has seen this: a post hits Twitter containing old news, and investors react as if it were new. A working paper by INET's Ansgar Walther and Oxford University colleagues, Peiran Jiao and Andre Veiga, suggests the phenomenon is prevalent, creating a source of excess volatility for investors. It found evidence that the unmediated flood of news and opinion that pours over the social media transom results in some stocks getting whipped around for weeks by the same facts. Read the full...

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Thumbnail for Europe’s asylum system serves neither the refugees nor the countries.

Europe’s asylum system serves neither the refugees nor the countries.

07 Apr 2016

Oxford Academics', Will Jones and INET Oxford's Alex Teytelboym discuss the use of matching markets to control the flow of regugees into Europe, recently in the Washington Post. 'Matching markets are markets in which all the parties have to agree to the transaction. If you go to the supermarket, and you buy an apple, the apple doesn’t need to consent to that transaction. But in a matching market, you typically have two parties, and both of the parties have to consent to the particular match. In the refugee...

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Thumbnail for World’s energy system likely to be committed to more than 2°C by 2017

World’s energy system likely to be committed to more than 2°C by 2017

30 Mar 2016

Stark warning from Oxford Martin School researchers on probability that ‘2°C capital stock’ will be reached next year A new study from the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and the Smith School for Enterprise and Environment, University of Oxford, shows that we are uncomfortably close to the point where the world’s energy system commits the planet to exceeding 2°C. In the paper, to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Applied Energy, the aut...

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Thumbnail for Climate issues are moving to the very forefront of financial thinking

Climate issues are moving to the very forefront of financial thinking

08 Mar 2016

In December, the international climate negotiations in Paris agreed to work towards “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. For most observers, who for a long time had assumed that a target as low and challenging as 1.5°C was off the table, this high ambition goal was an unexpected, albeit welcome, surprise. Now that the dust has fully settled on the agreement, the thinking required abo...

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Thumbnail for We Need a Twenty-First Century View of the Economy

We Need a Twenty-First Century View of the Economy

29 Feb 2016

INET Oxford’s Executive Director Eric Beinhocker and Seattle based technology entrepreneur and venture capitalist Nick Hanauer call for a new view of 21st century capitalism in the online journal Evonomics.  Read the article here:  http://evonomics.com/we-desperately-need-a-twenty-first-century-view-of-the-economy-en/

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Thumbnail for Complexity Theory and Financial Regulation

Complexity Theory and Financial Regulation

23 Feb 2016

Complexity theory is needed for better understanding and management of financial-economic crises, according to an interdisciplinary group of scientists from ecology, epidemiology, physics, computer science, sociology, economics and banking in Science today. Applications of complex networks, agent-based models and laboratory experiments offer great potential to better grasp complex financial economic systems.   Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial syst...

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Thumbnail for One Trend To Rule Them All: The Hidden Maths Of Urban Economies

One Trend To Rule Them All: The Hidden Maths Of Urban Economies

12 Feb 2016

'The Hidden, Universal Rule That Helps Govern The Way Businesses Grow In A City', INET Oxford's Dr Hyejin Youn. Read the full Forbes article here. Read the full Next City article here   

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