Prof John Muellbauer
Senior Research Fellow
Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford & Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College
Professor John Muellbauer is a Senior Research Fellow of Nuffield College, Professor of Economics and a Senior Fellow of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University. He is a Fellow of the British Academy, of the Econometric Society, and a CEPR Research Fellow. He has been a consultant to the World Bank, Bank of England, HM Treasury and the UK Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG). He has been a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Board and the IMF and was a Wim Duisenberg Visiting Fellow at the ECB in 2012/13 and a Fellow of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in 2018/19. His recent research was supported by grants from the Open Society Institute and the Oxford Martin School. He collaborates with economists from the Bank of Canada, Dallas Fed, Banque de France, Bundesbank and ECB on interactions between finance, housing and the real economy focused on the household sector; with Janine Aron on inflation forecasting and exchange rate pass-through, on mobile money for the Gates Foundation, and on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the UK (for the UK’s MHCLG); with Annalisa Cristini and Andrea Geraci on polarisation and inequality in the UK labour market; with John Duca and Anthony Murphy (Dallas Fed), on lessons from the role of housing in the financial crisis, on what drives US house prices, and on the implications of the long-term shift in US credit market architecture. His research, with colleagues, on the impact of credit market liberalization on consumer debt, spending and housing markets in the UK, US, Canada, South Africa and Australia and relative non‐liberalisation in Japan and Germany throws new light on monetary transmission, financial stability and monetary policy. He and Janine Aron are currently assisting the SARB to develop tools and communication strategies for their new financial stability mandate. His most recent paper, “The Future of Macroeconomics”, is a critique of models used by central banks and proposes ways forward. In another 2018 paper, he explains why “the UK housing market is broken” and proposes a comprehensive set of solutions (see a more detailed version).
His 1980 paper with Angus Deaton, “An Almost Ideal Demand System” in the American Economic Review was selected as one of the top twenty papers published in the first one hundred years of that journal. Before coming to Nuffield College in 1981, John was Professor of Economics at Birkbeck College, London, and Lecturer at Warwick University. He obtained his first degree from Cambridge University, England and his Doctorate from the University of California.
Blogs for VOXEU can be found at https://voxeu.org/users/johnmuellbauer0
No. 2023-12 - Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it
20 Jul 23
A green land value tax can resolve conflicts between meeting climate goals, and equity and housing a...
Three growth-friendly reforms for the UK’s broken planning system
17 Nov 22
Land value capture can fund new development and ease local fears about lack of infrastructure for ne...
The Thatcher Legacy: Lessons for the future of the UK economy
17 Nov 22
In this essay, part of our Navigating Economic Change series, economists John Muellbauer and David S...
Real Estate Booms and Busts: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in Europe
11 Jul 22
This paper examines the empirical evidence on the complex channels of transmission of monetary polic...
No. 2021-24 - Excess mortality versus COVID-19 death rates: a spatial analysis of socioeconomic disparities and political allegiance across US states
09 Dec 21
This paper is the first state-level spatial analysis of cumulative excess mortality for the U.S. in ...
What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues
14 Sep 21
This article provides an overview of major, recent contributions to the literature in relation to ea...
What drives house prices: Lessons from the literature
13 Sep 21
Research on house price cycles and their interactions with the economy has burgeoned since the Globa...
The US excess mortality rate from COVID-19 is substantially worse than Europe’s
29 Sep 20
The US has 4% of the world’s population but 21% of the global COVID-19-attributed infections and dea...
No. 2020-18 - Transatlantic excess mortality comparisons in the pandemic
25 Aug 20
In a previous article, we considered key issues for comparing rates of excess mortality between coun...
Excess mortality statistics in the pandemic and country comparisons - presentation
28 Jul 20
Why is it important to examine excess mortality data? How is excess mortality measured? Who measures...
A pandemic primer on excess mortality statistics and their comparability across countries
29 Jun 20
This article assesses the comparability of data on excess mortality between countries and regions, i...
No. 2020-11 - Measuring excess mortality: the case of England during the Covid-19 Pandemic
18 May 20
Excess mortality data avoid miscounting deaths from under-reporting of Covid-19-related deaths and o...
The coronavirus pandemic and U.S. consumption
23 Mar 20
In this short paper John Muellbauer models the potential near-term shock to U.S. consumption from th...
The economics of mobile money: Harnessing the transformative power of technology to benefit the gobal poor
08 May 19
The economics of mobile money: Harnessing the transformative power of technology to benefit the global poor
13 Mar 19
Forthcoming Oxford Martin School Policy Paper