Apr 2026
Journal

The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap
in International Journal of Central Banking
Andrew B. Martinez , Alexander D. Schibuola , David Beckworth

Apr 2026
Article

Expert Comment: Why does the OBR keep making large forecasting errors?
Jennifer Castle , David F. Hendry , Andrew Martinez

Mar 2026
INET Oxford Working Paper

No. 2026-07 - Macroeconomic Consequences of Sustained Warming: A Bias-Corrected Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach
Samuele Centorrino , Emanuele Massetti , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi , Jui-Chung Yang

Mar 2026
Journal

The ‘climate Kuznets curve’: A critique
in Energy Economics
Jennifer L. Castle , David F. Hendry

Feb 2026
Journal

Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen A. Doornik , David F. Hendry , Luke P. Jackson

Feb 2026
INET Oxford Working Paper

No. 2026-03 - The Adaptation Imperative: Climate Change and Sovereign Credit Risk
Matt Burke , Kamiar Mohaddes , Mehdi Raissi

Jan 2026
Policy Briefing

Improving Forecasting Accuracy at the OBR: Submission to the Treasury Committee Enquiry ‘The OBR: 15 years on’
Jennifer L. Castle , David F. Hendry , Andrew B. Martinez

Jan 2026
Working Paper

Manipulation in Prediction Markets: An Agent-based Modeling Experiment
Bridget Smart , Ebba Mark , Anne Bastian , Josefina Waugh

Dec 2025
Working Paper

When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises
Andrew Martinez , Tara M. Sinclair

Nov 2025
Journal

Real-time hurricane damage nowcasts
in International Journal of Forecasting
Andrew B. Martinez

Oct 2025
Journal

A Novel Approach to Forecasting After Large Forecast Errors
in Journal of Forecasting
Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen A. Doornik , David F. Hendry

Oct 2025
Journal

Could the Bank of England have avoided mis-forecasting UK inflation during 2021–24?
in International Journal of Forecasting
Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen A. Doornik , David F. Hendry

Oct 2025
Journal

The Role of Artificial Intelligence for Early Warning Systems: Status, Applicability, Guardrails and Ways Forward
in iScience
Timothy Tiggeloven , Samira Pfeiffer , Alessia Matanó , Marc van den Homberg , Lisa Thalheimer , Markus Reichstein , Silvia Torresan

Sept 2025
Journal

Advancing Human Displacement Modeling: A Case Study of the 2022 Summer Floods in Pakistan
in Earth's Future
Pui Man Kam , Tabea Cache , Bianca Biess , Steffen Lohrey , Sabrina Di Vincenzo , Jamie W. McCaughey , Radley M. Horton , Lisa Thalheimer

Jul 2025
Journal

Looking Back to 1991 Economic Forecasting: Introducing Cointegration
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
David F. Hendry

Jul 2025
Journal

Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited
in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Michael P. Clements

Jun 2025
Working Paper

House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks
William Larson , Andrew Martinez

May 2025
Journal

From Gridlock to Ratchet: Conditional Cooperation on Climate Change
in International Organization
Sam Rowan

Mar 2025
Journal

The short-term dynamics of conflict-driven displacement: Bayesian modeling of disaggregated data from Somalia
in The Annals of Applied Statistics
Gregor Zens , Lisa Thalheimer

Mar 2025
Journal

Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning
in Nature Communications
Lisa Thalheimer , Fabien Cottier , Andrew Kruczkiewicz , Carolynne Hultquist , Cascade Tuholske , Hélène Benveniste , Jan Freihardt , Mona Hemmati , Pui Man Kam , Narcisa G. Pricope , Jamon Van Den Hoek , Andrew Zimmer , Alex de Sherbinin , Radley M. Horton

Mar 2025
Journal

To what extent do climatic stressors drive human mobility in the world’s drylands? A systematic review of empirical evidence
in Population and Environment
Ann-Christine Link , Robert Oakes , David Durand-Delacre , Lisa Thalheimer-Prezyna , Kees van der Geest

Mar 2025
Journal

Improving empirical models and forecasts with saturation-based machine learning
in Annals of Operations Research
Andrew Martinez , Neil Ericsson

Feb 2025
Journal

Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany

Feb 2025
Journal

Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa
in Weather and Climate Extremes
Joyce Kimutai , Clair Barnes , Mariam Zachariah , Sjoukje Y. Philip , Sarah F. Kew , Izidine Pinto , Piotr Wolski , Gerbrand Koren , Gabriel Vecchi , Wenchang Yang , Sihan Li , Maja Vahlberg , Roop Singh , Dorothy Heinrich , Julie Arrighi , Carolina Pereira Marghidan , Lisa Thalheimer , Cheikh Kane , Emmanuel Raju , Friederike E.L. Otto

Feb 2025
Journal

Modelling dynamic interdependence in nonstationary variances with an application to carbon markets
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Susana Campos-Martins , Cristina Amado

Feb 2025
Working Paper

Looking Back to 1991 Economic Forecasting: A Report to the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee
David F. Hendry

Feb 2025
Journal

An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Michael P. Clements , Robert W. Rich , Joseph Tracy

Jan 2025
Working Paper

How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?
Andrew Martinez

Jan 2025
Article

Net zero: Strategy and tactics
Jennifer L. Castle , Ebba Mark , David F. Hendry , Moritz Schwarz , Felix Pretis

Jan 2025
Article

How the Bank of England could have avoided mis-forecasting UK inflation during 2021–24
Jennifer L. Castle , Jurgen Doornik , David F. Hendry

Nov 2024
Chapter

Econometric forecasting of climate change
Jennifer L. Castle , David F. Hendry , J. Isaac Miller

Oct 2024
Video

David Hendry: Forecasting UK Inflation during 2021-24
David Hendry , Jennifer Castle , Jurgen Doornik

Publications