Biography

Andrew Martinez is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at American University. He holds a DPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford. His research interests include time series econometrics, forecasting, applied macroeconomics, and climate econometrics.

Recent Publications

Apr 2026
Article

Expert Comment: Why does the OBR keep making large forecasting errors?
Jennifer Castle , David F. Hendry , Andrew Martinez

Dec 2025
Working Paper

When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises
Andrew Martinez , Tara M. Sinclair

Jun 2025
Working Paper

House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks
William Larson , Andrew Martinez

Mar 2025
Journal

Improving empirical models and forecasts with saturation-based machine learning
in Annals of Operations Research
Andrew Martinez , Neil Ericsson

Jan 2025
Working Paper

How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?
Andrew Martinez

Jun 2020
Journal

Improving normalized hurricane damages
in Nature Sustainability
Andrew Martinez , Andrew B. Martinez

May 2020
Journal

Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage
in Econometrics
Andrew B. Martinez , Andrew Martinez

Nov 2017
Working Paper

Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter
Andrew Martinez

Aug 2017
Working Paper

How quickly can we adapt to change? An assessment of hurricane damage mitigation efforts using forecast uncertainty
Andrew Martinez

Apr 2017

Policy analysis, forediction, and forecast failure
David Hendry , Jennifer Castle , Andrew Martinez

View All Related Publications

Recent Events

20 Oct 22
@14:00

“The Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity” - David Hendry (Economic Modelling/Climate Econometrics)

INET Researcher Seminar (VIRTUAL event)

Online Event

18 Oct 22
@16:00

'The expected macroeconomic impact of tropical cyclone shocks' - Andrew Martinez (US Treasury/Johns Hopkins University)

Climate Econometrics Seminar (Virtual)

Online Event

10 Nov 16
@15:00

INET Researcher Seminar: Andrew Martinez, EMoD - "The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damages and Fatalities"

In Person Event

29 Oct 15
@15:00

INET Oxford Research Talks: Andrew Martinez, "An Invariant Approach to Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations"

In Person Event

Research Areas

Macroeconomics

Methods and foundations of economics

Climate and environment

Programme Teams

Climate Econometrics

Related Projects

Climate Econometrics

The Climate Econometrics project develops new econometric methods and applies these to climate-economic problems. We focus on disentangling complex relationships between human actions and climate responses and their associated economic effects.

Econometric Modelling and Forecasting

Our modelling approach, supported by stringent model evaluation techniques, tackles all the complications of ‘real world’ economies, to provide a viable framework for empirical modelling that avoids many of the difficulties faced by ‘conventional’ approaches.

Macroeconomics and housing

We illuminate the roles of housing in the economy, emphasizing the importance of institutional arrangements (differing greatly between economies), and on how changes in house prices and mortgages in turn affect economic outcomes.

Modelling Structural Breaks

A key aspect of the financial crisis was the lack of fore-knowledge, so analyses of forecasting in the face of breaks, during breaks and of breaks themselves remain a central focus.