Overview

The Climate Econometrics team develops both econometric methods to support empirical analysis at the cutting edge of research, and climate applications based on powerful and innovative empirical models and their implications. Statistical and mathematical methods are employed to disentangle complex relationships between human actions, climate responses, and their associated economic effects. They aim to improve our understanding of the impact of humanity on climate and vice versa, and addressing how humanity should respond to the climate crisis. They also bring together climate econometrics researchers through an international research network.

The team develop and apply econometric tools for analysing and forecasting rapidly changing settings such as greenhouse gases, surface and ocean temperatures and sea level rise, and have published widely on the resulting methods as well as on a strategy for achieving net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions, showing its application to the UK. A recent Science paper by CE associates has attracted considerable interest.

The core team is directed by Dr Jennifer Castle, with Sir David Hendry, Dr Jurgen Doornik and Professor Felix Pretis, cooperating closely with the Calleva project at Magdalen College of Dr Xinjia Hu, Ebba Mark, Jonas Kurle and Kasper Pedersen. Interaction with climate policy processes internationally and nationally is led by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). The project is supported by an international advisory board.For enquiries please contact Angela Wenham:

angela.wenham@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

+44(0)1865 278654

Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK

Related Projects


Recent Publications

Oct 2025
Journal
Could the Bank of England have avoided mis-forecasting UK inflation during 2021–24?
in International Journal of Forecasting
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Jurgen A Doornik ,  David F. Hendry
Oct 2025
Journal
The Role of Artificial Intelligence for Early Warning Systems: Status, Applicability, Guardrails and Ways Forward
in iScience
Timothy Tiggeloven ,  Samira Pfeiffer ,  Alessia Matanó ,  Marc van den Homberg ,  Lisa Thalheimer ,  Markus Reichstein ,  Silvia Torresan
Sept 2025
Journal
Advancing Human Displacement Modeling: A Case Study of the 2022 Summer Floods in Pakistan
in Earth's Future
Pui Man Kam ,  Tabea Cache ,  Bianca Biess ,  Steffen Lohrey ,  Sabrina Di Vincenzo ,  Jamie W. McCaughey ,  Radley M. Horton ,  Lisa Thalheimer
Jul 2025
Journal
Looking Back to 1991 Economic Forecasting: Introducing Cointegration
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
David F. Hendry
Jul 2025
Journal
Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited
in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Michael P. Clements
Jun 2025
Working Paper
The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap
Andrew B. Martinez ,  Alexander D. Schibuola ,  David Beckworth
Jun 2025
Working Paper
May 2025
Journal
Apr 2025
Working Paper
Mar 2025
Journal
Mar 2025
Journal
Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning
in Nature Communications
Lisa Thalheimer ,  Fabien Cottier ,  Andrew Kruczkiewicz ,  Carolynne Hultquist ,  Cascade Tuholske ,  Hélène Benveniste ,  Jan Freihardt ,  Mona Hemmati ,  Pui Man Kam ,  Narcisa G. Pricope ,  Jamon Van Den Hoek ,  Andrew Zimmer ,  Alex de Sherbinin ,  Radley M. Horton
Mar 2025
Journal
To what extent do climatic stressors drive human mobility in the world’s drylands? A systematic review of empirical evidence
in Population and Environment
Ann-Christine Link ,  Robert Oakes ,  David Durand-Delacre ,  Lisa Thalheimer-Prezyna ,  Kees van der Geest
Mar 2025
Journal
Improving empirical models and forecasts with saturation-based machine learning
in Annals of Operations Research
Andrew Martinez ,  Neil Ericsson
Feb 2025
Journal
Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Matthew Bone ,  Eugenia González Ehlinger ,  Fabian Stephany
Feb 2025
Journal
Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa
in Weather and Climate Extremes
Joyce Kimutai ,  Clair Barnes ,  Mariam Zachariah ,  Sjoukje Y. Philip ,  Sarah F. Kew ,  Izidine Pinto ,  Piotr Wolski ,  Gerbrand Koren ,  Gabriel Vecchi ,  Wenchang Yang ,  Sihan Li ,  Maja Vahlberg ,  Roop Singh ,  Dorothy Heinrich ,  Julie Arrighi ,  Carolina Pereira Marghidan ,  Lisa Thalheimer ,  Cheikh Kane ,  Emmanuel Raju ,  Friederike E.L. Otto
Feb 2025
Journal
Modelling dynamic interdependence in nonstationary variances with an application to carbon markets
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Susana Campos-Martins ,  Cristina Amado
Feb 2025
Journal
An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Michael P. Clements ,  Robert W. Rich ,  Joseph Tracy
Jan 2025
Article
Net zero: Strategy and tactics
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Ebba Mark ,  David F. Hendry ,  Moritz Schwarz ,  Felix Pretis
Jan 2025
Article
Nov 2024
Chapter
Econometric forecasting of climate change
Jennifer L. Castle ,  David F. Hendry ,  J. Isaac Miller
Oct 2024
Video
David Hendry: Forecasting UK Inflation during 2021-24
David Hendry ,  Jennifer Castle ,  Jurgen Doornik
Sept 2024
Video
Special panel discussion: Climate Policies that achieved major emissions reductions
Ebba Mark ,  Moritz Schwarz ,  Anupama Sen ,  Chris Stark
Sept 2024
Chapter
Aug 2024
Journal
Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades
in Science
Annika Stechemesser ,  Nicolas Koch ,  Ebba Mark ,  Elina Dilger ,  Patrick Klösel ,  Laura Menicacci ,  Daniel Nachtigall ,  Felix Pretis ,  Nolan Ritter ,  Moritz Schwarz ,  Helena Vossen ,  Anna Wenzel
Jun 2024
Journal
Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing
in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Michael P. Clements
May 2024
Journal
Stability between cryptocurrency prices and the term structure
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Takamitsu Kurita
May 2024
Journal
Forecasting the UK Top 1% Income Share in a Shifting World
in Economica
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Jurgen A Doornik ,  David F. Hendry
May 2024
Journal
Can the UK achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?
in National Institute Economic Review
David F. Hendry ,  Jennifer L. Castle
May 2024
Journal
What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Jennifer L. Castle ,  David F. Hendry
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