Recognizing that more research and development (R&D) spending alone does not necessarily lead to successful innovation outcomes, this project explores how resources can be spent wisely in order to induce and accelerate clean energy innovation. We are using large databases of R&D subsidies and company performance measures to examine how different innovation policy designs impact innovation outcomes. The project is part of the Oxford Martin Programme on Integrating Renewable Energy.
Project Leader / Primary Investigator
J. Doyne Farmer
Recent Publications
Oct 2025
Oct 2025
No. 2025-19 - Managing the impact of energy transition path uncertainty on European infrastructure investments
David Nelson , Ada Kinczyk , Carlos Perez Villanueva
David Nelson , Ada Kinczyk , Carlos Perez Villanueva
Aug 2025
A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them
in Sustainability Science
Timothy M. Lenton , Thomas W. R. Powell , Steven R. Smith , Frank W. Geels , Floor Alkemade , Martina Ayoub , Pete Barbrook-Johnson , Scarlett Benson , Fenna Blomsma , Chris A. Boulton , Joshua E. Buxton , Sara M. Constantino , Sibel Eker , Kai Greenlees , Thomas Homer‑Dixon , Kelly Levin , Michael B. Mascia , Femke Nijsse , Ilona M. Otto , Viktoria Spaiser , Simon Sharpe , Talia Smith
in Sustainability Science
Timothy M. Lenton , Thomas W. R. Powell , Steven R. Smith , Frank W. Geels , Floor Alkemade , Martina Ayoub , Pete Barbrook-Johnson , Scarlett Benson , Fenna Blomsma , Chris A. Boulton , Joshua E. Buxton , Sara M. Constantino , Sibel Eker , Kai Greenlees , Thomas Homer‑Dixon , Kelly Levin , Michael B. Mascia , Femke Nijsse , Ilona M. Otto , Viktoria Spaiser , Simon Sharpe , Talia Smith
Aug 2025
Jul 2025
Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Cameron Hepburn , Matthew C. Ives , Sam Loni , Penny Mealy , Pete Barbrook-Johnson , J. Doyne Farmer , Nicholas Stern , Joseph Stiglitz
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Cameron Hepburn , Matthew C. Ives , Sam Loni , Penny Mealy , Pete Barbrook-Johnson , J. Doyne Farmer , Nicholas Stern , Joseph Stiglitz
Jul 2025
No. 2025-15 - Do common shocks drive changes in aggregate emissions intensity?
Xiyu Ren , Fulvia Marotta , François Lafond
Xiyu Ren , Fulvia Marotta , François Lafond
Jul 2025
How to design better incentives for carbon capture and storage in the United States
in PNAS
Sheila M. Olmstead , Benjamin D. Leibowicz , Charles F. Mason , Andrew R. Waxman , Emily Grubert , HR Huber-Rodriguez , Joseph Stemmler
in PNAS
Sheila M. Olmstead , Benjamin D. Leibowicz , Charles F. Mason , Andrew R. Waxman , Emily Grubert , HR Huber-Rodriguez , Joseph Stemmler
May 2025
No. 2025-12 - Will national renewable costs continue declining?
Lennart Baumgärtner , J. Doyne Farmer
Lennart Baumgärtner , J. Doyne Farmer
Mar 2025
Facilitating India’s Deep Decarbonisation Through Sector Coupling of Electricity with Green Hydrogen and Ammonia
in Energy Storage and Applications
Zac Cesaro , Rasmus Bramstoft , Rene Banares-Alcantara , Matthew C. Ives
in Energy Storage and Applications
Zac Cesaro , Rasmus Bramstoft , Rene Banares-Alcantara , Matthew C. Ives
Feb 2025
Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany
Dec 2024
Sept 2024
China leads the net zero transition – here’s what we can learn from its progress in Beijing and Hong Kong
Matthew C. Ives , Sum Yue Chang
Matthew C. Ives , Sum Yue Chang
Sept 2024
No. 2023-14 - Making intellectual property rights work for climate technology transfer and innovation in developing countries
Su Jung Jee , Kerstin Hötte , Caoimhe Ring , Robert Burrell
Su Jung Jee , Kerstin Hötte , Caoimhe Ring , Robert Burrell
Aug 2024
Jul 2024
Knowledge spillovers between clean and dirty technologies: Evidence from the patent citation network
in Ecological Economics
Su Jung Jee , Sugandha Srivastav
in Ecological Economics
Su Jung Jee , Sugandha Srivastav
Oct 2023
Aug 2022
Knowledge for a warmer world: A patent analysis of climate change adaptation technologies
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Kerstin Hötte , Su Jung Jee
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Kerstin Hötte , Su Jung Jee
Jul 2022
Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II as a Natural Experiment
in The Journal of Economic History
François Lafond , Diana Greenwald , J. Doyne Farmer
in The Journal of Economic History
François Lafond , Diana Greenwald , J. Doyne Farmer
Dec 2021
Predictors of Success in a Greening World
Pia Andres , Joris Bucker , Matthew Ives , Penny Mealy , Kevin Tang , Michael Urban , Matthew McCarten , Sugandha Srivastav , Cameron Hepburn
Pia Andres , Joris Bucker , Matthew Ives , Penny Mealy , Kevin Tang , Michael Urban , Matthew McCarten , Sugandha Srivastav , Cameron Hepburn
Oct 2021
The New Economics of Innovation and Transition: Evaluating Opportunities and Risks
Michael Grubb , Paul Drummond , Jean-Francois Mercure , Cameron Hepburn , Peter Barbrook-Johnson , João Carlos Ferraz , Alex Clark , Laura Diaz Anadon , J. Doyne Farmer , Ben Hinder , Matthew Ives , Aled Jones , Gao Jun , Ulka Kelkar , Sergey Kolesnikov , Aileen Lam , Ritu Mathur , Roberto Pasqualino , Cristina Penasco , Hector Pollitt , Luma Ramos , Andrea Roventini , Pablo Salas , Simon Sharpe , Zhu Songli , Pim Vercoulen , Kamna Waghray , Zhang Xiliang
Michael Grubb , Paul Drummond , Jean-Francois Mercure , Cameron Hepburn , Peter Barbrook-Johnson , João Carlos Ferraz , Alex Clark , Laura Diaz Anadon , J. Doyne Farmer , Ben Hinder , Matthew Ives , Aled Jones , Gao Jun , Ulka Kelkar , Sergey Kolesnikov , Aileen Lam , Ritu Mathur , Roberto Pasqualino , Cristina Penasco , Hector Pollitt , Luma Ramos , Andrea Roventini , Pablo Salas , Simon Sharpe , Zhu Songli , Pim Vercoulen , Kamna Waghray , Zhang Xiliang
Jan 2021
The rise of science in low-carbon energy technologies
in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Kerstin Hötte , Anton Pichler , François Lafond
in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Kerstin Hötte , Anton Pichler , François Lafond
Jun 2020
No. 2020-02 - Can stimulating demand drive costs down? World War II as a natural experiment
François Lafond , Diana Greenwald , J. Doyne Farmer
François Lafond , Diana Greenwald , J. Doyne Farmer
Mar 2020
Technology Transfer and Innovation for Low-Carbon Development
Miria Pigato , Simon J. Black , Damien Dussaux , Zhimin Mao , Miles McKenna , Ryan Rafaty , Simon Touboul
Miria Pigato , Simon J. Black , Damien Dussaux , Zhimin Mao , Miles McKenna , Ryan Rafaty , Simon Touboul
Jan 2020
How to accelerate green technology diffusion? Directed technological change in the presence of coevolving absorptive capacity
in Energy Economics
Kerstin Hötte
in Energy Economics
Kerstin Hötte
Jan 2019
Long-run dynamics of the U.S. patent classification system
in Journal of Evolutionary Economics
François Lafond , Daniel Kim
in Journal of Evolutionary Economics
François Lafond , Daniel Kim
Mar 2018
How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
J. Doyne Farmer , François Lafond , Aimee Gotway Bailey , Jan David Bakker , Dylan Rebois , Rubina Zadourian , Patrick McSharry
in Technological Forecasting and Social Change
J. Doyne Farmer , François Lafond , Aimee Gotway Bailey , Jan David Bakker , Dylan Rebois , Rubina Zadourian , Patrick McSharry
Jan 2018
Policy Brief—Encouraging Innovation that Protects Environmental Systems: Five Policy Proposals
in Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
Cameron Hepburn , Jacquelyn Pless , David Popp
in Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
Cameron Hepburn , Jacquelyn Pless , David Popp
Oct 2017
The impact of energy prices on product innovation: Evidence from the UK refrigerator market
in Energy Economics
François Cohen , Matthieu Glachant , Magnus Söderberg
in Energy Economics
François Cohen , Matthieu Glachant , Magnus Söderberg
Nov 2014
Path Dependence, Innovation and the Economics of Climate Change
Cameron Hepburn , Alexander Teytelboym , Phillipe Aghion , Dimitri Zenghelis
Cameron Hepburn , Alexander Teytelboym , Phillipe Aghion , Dimitri Zenghelis