Biography

J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking and Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm.

His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024.

During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.

Prof Farmer's PA, Dorothy Nicholas, can be reached on 01865 610403 or dorothy.nicholas@inet.ox.ac.uk.

See talks and coverage relating to Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World

Recent Publications

Sept 2024
INET Working Paper
No. 2024-06 - Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model
Samuel Wiese ,  Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ,  Joel Dyer ,  Jose Moran ,  Marco Pangallo ,  François Lafond ,  John Muellbauer ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Aug 2024
Journal
The need for better statistical testing in data-driven energy technology modeling
in Joule
Lennart Baumgärtner ,  Rupert Way ,  Matthew Ives ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Jun 2024
Journal
Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution
in Industrial and Corporate Change
Jangho Yang ,  Torsten Heinrich ,  Julian Winkler ,  François Lafond ,  Pantelis Koutroumpis ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Feb 2024
Journal
Black-box Bayesian inference for agent-based models
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Joel Dyer ,  Patrick Cannon ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Sebastian Schmon
Feb 2024
Journal
Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers
in Nature Energy
Peter Barbrook-Johnson ,  Jean-Francois Mercure ,  Simon Sharpe ,  Cristina Penasco ,  Cameron Hepburn ,  Laura Diaz Anadon ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Timothy M. Lenton
Jan 2024
Journal
Population synthesis as scenario generation for simulation-based planning under uncertainty
in Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2024)
Joel Dyer ,  Arnau Quera-Bofarull ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Michael Wooldridge
Dec 2023
Working Paper
Discounting the distant future: What do historical bond prices imply about the long term discount rate?
J. Doyne Farmer ,  John Geanakoplos ,  Matteo Richiardi ,  Miquel Montero ,  Josep Perelló ,  Jaume Masoliver
Nov 2023
INET Working Paper
No. 2023-28 - Employment dynamics in a rapid decarbonization of the power sector
Joris Bucker ,  R. Maria del Rio-Chanona ,  Anton Pichler ,  Matthew C. Ives ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Nov 2023
Journal
Gradient-assisted calibration for financial agent-based models
in Proceedings of the Fourth ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF '23)
Joel Dyer ,  Arnau Quera-Bofarull ,  Ayush Chopra ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Michael Wooldridge
Nov 2023
Journal
The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic
in Nature Human Behaviour
Marco Pangallo ,  Alberto Aleta ,  R. Maria del Rio-Chanona ,  Anton Pichler ,  David Martin-Corral ,  Matteo Chinazzi ,  François Lafond ,  Marco Ajelli ,  Esteban Moro ,  Yamir Moreno ,  Alessandro Vespignani ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Oct 2023
Journal
Building an alliance to map global supply networks
in Science
Anton Pichler ,  Christian Diem ,  Alexandra Brintrup ,  François Lafond ,  Glenn Magerman ,  Gert Buiten ,  Thomas Choi ,  Vasco M. Carvalho ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Stefan Thurner
Oct 2023
INET Working Paper
No. 2023-21 - Modelling labour market transitions: the case of productivity shifts in Brazil
Anna Berryman ,  Joris Bucker ,  Fernanda Senra de Moura ,  Peter Barbrook-Johnson ,  Marek Hanusch ,  Penny Mealy ,  R Maria del Rio-Chanona ,  J. Doyne Farmer
Oct 2023
Briefing
Oct 2023
Journal
Black-box inference for differentiable simulators
in Journal of Open Source Software
Arnau Quera-Bofarull ,  Joel Dyer ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Michael Wooldridge

Recent Events

13 Jun 24
@12:00

INET Oxford Summer Research Meeting 2024

The event is open to all INET Oxford researchers, staff, visitors, and associate members

In Person Event
INET RGB
21 Jun 21
@15:00

The Oxford Summer School in Economic Networks

Virtual Summer School

In Person Event
Stock Oxford
19 Apr 21
@14:00

A new perspective on decarbonising the global energy system

Report Launch from Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and INET Oxford

Online Event
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Programme Teams

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