Overview

A growing number of economists and social scientists view the economy as a ‘complex adaptive system’ - a distributed network of dynamically interacting, heterogeneous agents, whose behaviours, strategies and relationships evolve over time. Under such a view the economy is more akin to an ecosystem, the brain, or the internet than to the mechanistic models of traditional theory.

The Complexity Economics Programme is applying leading-edge tools from complex systems science to generate new insights into a wide range of economic problems. The group utilises methods such as network analysis and agent-based computer simulations to incorporate realistic portrayals of human behaviour and institutions in its models and better understand how economic systems evolve dynamically over time. This approach enables researchers to see how macro patterns in the economy, such as financial crises, emerge out of micro level behaviours, interactions, and structures. The group is applying these techniques to issues including financial system stability, innovation, and growth, and is also collaborating with the Economics, Inequality & Opportunity programme on inequality and employment, and the Economics of Sustainability programme on issues related to sustainable growth.

The group includes scholars from a number of disciplines, including economics, maths, physics, geography and computer science. The programme is partnered with Oxford’s School of Geography, Mathematical Institute, Department of Computer Science and the Saïd Business School. The programme’s work has generated significant interest from policymakers. Interactions with policymakers include the Bank of England, European Central Bank, New York Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bundesbank, European Commission, IMF, OECD, UK HM Treasury, UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, US Department of Energy, US Senate, and various policy think tanks in the US and UK.

If you would like to keep up to date with our publications, news and events, follow @inet-complexity.bsky.social on BlueSky, @INET_Complexity on X (formerly Twitter) or contact complexity@inet.ox.ac.uk for more information.

Related Projects


Recent Publications

Oct 2025
INET Working Paper
Sept 2025
Paper
Sandbagging in a Simple Survival Bandit Problem
Joel Dyer ,  Daniel Jarne Ornia ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Michael Wooldridge
Sept 2025
Paper
Emergent Risk Awareness in Rational Agents under Resource Constraints
Daniel Jarne Ornia ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  Joel Dyer ,  Wei-Chen Lee ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Michael Wooldridge
Sept 2025
Working Paper
Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models
Blas Kolic ,  Corrado Monti ,  Gianmarco De Francisci Morales ,  Marco Pangallo
Sept 2025
Journal
The power of bridging decision scales: Model coupling for advanced climate policy analysis
in PNAS
Tatiana Filatova ,  Joos Akkerman ,  Francesco Bosello ,  Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis ,  Ignasi Cortés Arbués ,  Amineh Ghorbani ,  Olga Ivanova ,  Nina Knittel ,  Jan Kwakkel ,  Francesco Lamperti ,  Nicholas R. Magliocca ,  Giacomo Marangoni ,  Stefan Nabernegg ,  Anton Pichler ,  Adrian Poujon ,  Karolina Safarzynska ,  Alessandro Taberna ,  Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld ,  Liz Verbeek ,  Taoyuan Wei
Sept 2025
Working Paper
Painting the market: generative diffusion models for financial limit order book simulation and forecasting
Alfred Backhouse ,  Kang Li ,  Jakob Foerster ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Stefan Zohren
Sept 2025
Paper
Using causal abstractions to accelerate decision-making in complex bandit problems
Joel Dyer ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Michael Wooldridge ,  Fabio Massimo Zennaro
Sept 2025
Paper
Automatic Differentiation of Agent-Based Models
Arnau Quera-Bofarull ,  Nicholas Bishop ,  Joel Dyer ,  Daniel Jarne Ornia ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Michael Wooldridge
Sept 2025
INET Working Paper
Aug 2025
Journal
Aug 2025
Working Paper
Higher-order exposures
Garbrand Wiersema ,  Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis ,  Esti Kemp ,  Thom Wetzer
Aug 2025
Journal
A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them
in Sustainability Science
Timothy M. Lenton ,  Thomas W. R. Powell ,  Steven R. Smith ,  Frank W. Geels ,  Floor Alkemade ,  Martina Ayoub ,  Pete Barbrook-Johnson ,  Scarlett Benson ,  Fenna Blomsma ,  Chris A. Boulton ,  Joshua E. Buxton ,  Sara M. Constantino ,  Sibel Eker ,  Kai Greenlees ,  Thomas Homer‑Dixon ,  Kelly Levin ,  Michael B. Mascia ,  Femke Nijsse ,  Ilona M. Otto ,  Viktoria Spaiser ,  Simon Sharpe ,  Talia Smith
Aug 2025
Journal
From chambers to echo chambers: quantifying polarization with a second-neighbor approach applied to Twitter’s climate discussion
in Journal of Complex Networks
Blas Kolic ,  Fabián Aguirre-López ,  Sergio Hernández-Williams ,  Guillermo Garduño-Hernández
Jul 2025
INET Working Paper
No. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy making
Pete Barbrook-Johnson ,  Domenica Cox ,  Alexandra S. Penn
Jul 2025
Journal
Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Cameron Hepburn ,  Matthew C. Ives ,  Sam Loni ,  Penny Mealy ,  Pete Barbrook-Johnson ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Nicholas Stern ,  Joseph Stiglitz
Jul 2025
INET Working Paper
Jul 2025
Conference Paper
LOB-Bench: Benchmarking Generative AI for Finance - an Application to Limit Order Book Data
Peer Nagy ,  Sascha Yves Frey ,  Kang Li ,  Bidipta Sarkar ,  Svitlana Vyetrenko ,  Stefan Zohren ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Jakob Nicolaus Foerster
Jul 2025
Conference Paper
Ad-Hoc Human-AI Coordination Challenge
Tin Dizdarević ,  Ravi Hammond ,  Tobias Gessler ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Jonathan Cook ,  Matteo Gallici ,  Andrei Lupu ,  Jakob Nicolaus Foerster
Jul 2025
Chapter
Jun 2025
INET Working Paper
No. 2025-14 - Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?
Andrea Bacilieri ,  András Borsos ,  Pablo Astudillo-Estévez ,  Mads Höfer ,  François Lafond
Jun 2025
Conference Paper
In Which Areas of Technical AI Safety Could Geopolitical Rivals Cooperate?
Benjamin S Bucknall ,  Saad Siddiqui ,  Lara Thurnherr ,  Conor McGurk ,  Ben Harack ,  Anka Reuel ,  Patricia Paskov ,  Casey Mahoney ,  Sören Mindermann ,  Scott Singer ,  Vinay Hiremath ,  Charbel Raphaël Segerie ,  Oscar Delaney ,  Alessandro Abate ,  Fazl Barez ,  Michael K Cohen ,  Philip H S Torr ,  Ferenc Huszár ,  Anisoara Calinescu ,  Gabriel Davis Jones ,  Robert Trager
Jun 2025
Working Paper
Jun 2025
Article
Tackling transformational change in climate policy appraisal: experiences and perceptions of United Kingdom policy analysts
Cormac Lynch ,  Pete Barbrook-Johnson ,  Pablo Salas Bravo ,  Jean-Francois Mercure ,  Femke Nijsse ,  Jin Qin ,  Roberto Pasqualino
Jun 2025
Article
Six provocations on the origins and impacts of the UK housing emergency
Ben Ansell ,  Martin Daunton ,  Emily Grundy ,  John Muellbauer ,  Michael Murphy ,  Avner Offer ,  Susan J. Smith
Jun 2025
Journal
Drivers of Youth Outsiderness in European Labour Markets. A Comment on Marques and Salavisa (Socio-Economic Review, 2017)
in Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics
Svenja Flechtner ,  Torsten Heinrich
Jun 2025
Journal
An asset-level analysis of financial tail risks under extreme weather events
in Environmental Research Climate
Ruben Kerkhofs ,  Mark Bernhofen ,  Marcin Borsuk ,  Moritz Baer ,  Nicola Ranger ,  Wim Schoutens ,  Gireesh Shrimali
May 2025
Paper
Mapping compact memory-biased dynamics reveals overlapping communities
Maja Lindström ,  Rohit Sahasrabuddhe ,  Anton Holmgren ,  Christopher Blöcker ,  Tommy Löfstedt ,  Martin Rosvall
May 2025
INET Working Paper
May 2025
Journal
Complex systems approaches to 21st century challenges: Introduction to the Special Issue
in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Jenna Bednar ,  Maria del Rio-Chanona ,  J. Doyne Farmer ,  Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ,  François Lafond ,  Penny Mealy ,  Marco Pangallo ,  Anton Pichler
May 2025
Journal
Detection of anomalous spatio-temporal patterns of app traffic in response to catastrophic events
in EPJ Data Science
Sofia Medina ,  Shazia’Ayn Babul ,  Timothy LaRock ,  Rohit Sahasrabuddhe ,  Renaud Lambiotte ,  Nicola Pedreschi
View All Related Publications

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