Overview

The Climate Econometrics team develops both econometric methods to support empirical analysis at the cutting edge of research, and climate applications based on powerful and innovative empirical models and their implications. Statistical and mathematical methods are employed to disentangle complex relationships between human actions, climate responses, and their associated economic effects. They aim to improve our understanding of the impact of humanity on climate and vice versa, and addressing how humanity should respond to the climate crisis. They also bring together climate econometrics researchers through an international research network.

The team develop and apply econometric tools for analysing and forecasting rapidly changing settings such as greenhouse gases, surface and ocean temperatures and sea level rise, and have published widely on the resulting methods as well as on a strategy for achieving net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions, showing its application to the UK. A recent Science paper by CE associates has attracted considerable interest.

The core team is directed by Dr Jennifer Castle, with Sir David Hendry, Dr Jurgen Doornik and Professor Felix Pretis, cooperating closely with the Calleva project at Magdalen College of Dr Xinjia Hu, Ebba Mark, Jonas Kurle and Kasper Pedersen. Interaction with climate policy processes internationally and nationally is led by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). The project is supported by an international advisory board.For enquiries please contact Angela Wenham:

angela.wenham@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

+44(0)1865 278654

Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK

Related Projects


Recent Publications

Jan 2025
Article
Nov 2024
Chapter
Econometric forecasting of climate change
Jennifer L. Castle ,  David F. Hendry ,  J. Isaac Miller
Oct 2024
Video
David Hendry: Forecasting UK Inflation during 2021-24
David Hendry ,  Jennifer Castle ,  Jurgen Doornik
Sept 2024
Video
Special panel discussion: Climate Policies that achieved major emissions reductions
Ebba Mark ,  Moritz Schwarz ,  Anupama Sen ,  Chris Stark
Sept 2024
Chapter
Aug 2024
Journal
Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades
in Science
Annika Stechemesser ,  Nicolas Koch ,  Ebba Mark ,  Elina Dilger ,  Patrick Klösel ,  Laura Menicacci ,  Daniel Nachtigall ,  Felix Pretis ,  Nolan Ritter ,  Moritz Schwarz ,  Helena Vossen ,  Anna Wenzel
May 2024
Journal
Stability between cryptocurrency prices and the term structure
in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Takamitsu Kurita
May 2024
Journal
Forecasting the UK Top 1% Income Share in a Shifting World
in Economica
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Jurgen A Doornik ,  David F. Hendry
May 2024
Journal
Can the UK achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?
in National Institute Economic Review
David F. Hendry ,  Jennifer L. Castle
May 2024
Journal
What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Jennifer L. Castle ,  David F. Hendry
Apr 2024
Journal
Feb 2024
Journal
Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia
in Climate Risk Management
Lisa Thalheimer ,  Franziska Gaupp ,  Christian Webersik
Feb 2024
Journal
Jan 2024
Journal
The role of anticipatory humanitarian action to reduce disaster displacement
in Environmental Research Letters
Lisa Thalheimer ,  Ezekiel Simperingham ,  Eddie Wasswa Jjemba
Jan 2024
Journal
Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis
in Journal of International Money and Finance
Susana Campos-Martins ,  Cristina Amado
Nov 2023
Journal
A Brief History of General-to-specific Modelling
in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
David F. Hendry
Nov 2023
Journal
An empirical estimate for the snow albedo feedback effect
in Climatic Change
Robert F. Kaufmann ,  Felix Pretis
Nov 2023
Journal
Does protest influence political speech? Evidence from UK climate protest, 2017-2019
in British Journal of Political Science
Christopher Barrie ,  Thomas G. Fleming ,  Sam S. Rowan
Oct 2023
Journal
Improving models and forecasts after equilibrium-mean shifts
in International Journal of Forecasting
Jennifer L. Castle ,  Jurgen A Doornik ,  David F. Hendry
Aug 2023
Journal
The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation
in Energy Economics
Jennifer L. Castle ,  David F. Hendry ,  Andrew B. Martinez
Jun 2023
Article
Why can economic forecasts go wrong?
Jennifer L. Castle ,  David F. Hendry
Jun 2023
Journal
Common volatility shocks driven by the global carbon transition
in Journal of Econometrics
Susana Campos-Martins ,  David F. Hendry
Jun 2023
Normality testing after outlier removal
Vanessa Berenguer-Rico ,  Bent Nielsen
May 2023
Working Paper
May 2023
Journal
A model where the least trimmed squares estimator is maximum likelihood
in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B: Statistical Methodology
Vanessa Berenguer-Rico ,  Soren Johansen ,  Bent Nielsen
Mar 2023
Working Paper
Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions
Ryan Rafaty ,  Geoffroy Dolphin ,  Felix Pretis
Mar 2023
Journal
Large weather and conflict effects on internal discplacement in Somalia with little evidence of feedback onto conflict
in Global Environmental Change
Lisa Thalheimer ,  Moritz Schwarz ,  Felix Pretis
Jan 2023
Working Paper
Nov 2022
Journal
Political strategies to overcome climate policy obstructionism
in Perspectives on Politics
Sugandha Srivastav ,  Ryan Rafaty
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