Having highlighted major flaws in extant macroeconomic models, researchers in EMoD are investigating the changes needed to economic analyses, policy, empirical modelling and forecasting when there are sudden, or very rapid, unanticipated changes in economies. To do so, they are developing powerful new methods of empirical economic modelling, nowcasting and forecasting that are robust after crises, with appropriate automatic modelling software to implement the new approaches.
About the Programme
The 21st century began with the largest global economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression almost 80 years earlier. Many factors have been blamed for this disastrous outcome, but inadequate economic models and a failure to forecast the crash are partly at fault, exacerbated by poor policy responses, precipitating the need for a paradigm shift. In fact, economic analyses, policy, empirical modelling and forecasting all confront major difficulties when sudden, or very rapid, unanticipated changes occur in economies. EMoD researchers engage with academics and policymakers to disseminate their work and show how their approach differs substantively from conventional methods. Since its inception, policymaker interactions include the central banks of Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Cyprus, Greece, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland and UK; US Federal Reserve Board, European Central Bank, World Bank, IMF, Bank for International Settlements, Statistics Norway and Statistics South Africa. EMoD researchers actively participate in, and present at, International Economic and Econometric Conferences, as well as delivering seminar presentations. The program also addresses climate change as that too has major implications for economies worldwide. There have been more than 3,000 citations of our researchers work since the programme’s inception.
For enquiries please contact Angela Wenham:
Nuffield College, New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK