Prof J. Doyne Farmer
Director of Complexity Economics
Baillie Gifford Professor of Mathematics, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford
J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor in the Mathematical Institute at the University of Oxford, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology.
During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.
No. 2019-12 - A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneity
12 Jul 19
We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use i...
No. 2019-11 - Emergent Inequality and Endogenous Dynamics in a Simple Behavioral Macroeconomic Model
05 Jul 19
Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household ...
No. 2019-10 - Scenario-Free Analysis of Financial Stability with Interacting Contagion Channels
23 Jun 19
Currently financial stress test simulations that take into account multiple interacting contagion me...
Automation and occupational mobility: A data-driven network model
17 Jun 19
Based on empirical data we construct an occupational mobility network where nodes are occupations an...
Prof Doyne Farmer: How complexity can resolve the crisis in economics
09 May 19
Economics is in crisis. On one hand, behavioural economics is now well-established, but on the other...
Sensitive intervention points in the post-carbon transition
12 Apr 19
We propose to examine how to exploit similar sensitive intervention points (SIPs) and amplification ...
Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
01 Apr 19
We apply portfolio theory to technologies following experience curves.
Interpreting economic complexity
18 Mar 19
We show that the ECI and PCI are equivalent to a spectral clustering algorithm that partitions a sim...
Best reply structure and equilibrium convergence in generic games
20 Feb 19
We show that best reply cycles, basic topological structures in games, predict nonconvergence of six...
Models of Financial Stability and Their Application in Stress Tests
13 Jun 18
We review heterogeneous agent models of financial stability and their application in stress tests.
No. 2018-09 - The Tipping Point: How the G20 Can Lead the Transition to a Prosperous Clean Energy Economy
25 May 18
No. 2017-07 - Best reply structure and equilibrium convergence in generic games
17 Mar 18
No. 2018-6 - Models of Financial Stability and Their Application in Stress Tests
06 Mar 18
How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
01 Mar 18
We develop a method to make distributional forecasts using experience curves.