Prof J. Doyne Farmer
Director of Complexity Economics
Baillie Gifford Professor of Mathematics, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford
J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor in the Mathematical Institute at the University of Oxford, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology.
During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.
Prof Farmer's PA, Dorothy Nicholas, can be reached on 01865 610403 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
No.2020-04 - Technological interdependencies predict innovation dynamics
02 Mar 20
We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovat...
Collaborators in creation
11 Feb 20
Our world is a system, in which physical and social technologies co-evolve. How can we shape a proce...
No. 2020-02 - Can stimulating demand drive costs down? World War II as a natural experiment
15 Jan 20
Our results indicate that decreases in cost can be attributed roughly equally to the growth of exper...
No. 2019-14 - Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution
02 Oct 19
We examine in detail the distribution of labor productivity levels and growth, and observe that they...
No. 2019-12 - A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneity
12 Jul 19
We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use i...
No. 2019-11 - Emergent Inequality and Endogenous Dynamics in a Simple Behavioral Macroeconomic Model
05 Jul 19
Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household ...
No. 2019-10 - Scenario-Free Analysis of Financial Stability with Interacting Contagion Channels
23 Jun 19
Currently financial stress test simulations that take into account multiple interacting contagion me...
Automation and occupational mobility: A data-driven network model
17 Jun 19
Based on empirical data we construct an occupational mobility network where nodes are occupations an...
Prof Doyne Farmer: How complexity can resolve the crisis in economics
09 May 19
Economics is in crisis. On one hand, behavioural economics is now well-established, but on the other...
Sensitive intervention points in the post-carbon transition
12 Apr 19
We propose to examine how to exploit similar sensitive intervention points (SIPs) and amplification ...
Wright meets Markowitz: How standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves
01 Apr 19
We apply portfolio theory to technologies following experience curves.
Interpreting economic complexity
18 Mar 19
We show that the ECI and PCI are equivalent to a spectral clustering algorithm that partitions a sim...
Best reply structure and equilibrium convergence in generic games
20 Feb 19
We show that best reply cycles, basic topological structures in games, predict nonconvergence of six...
Models of Financial Stability and Their Application in Stress Tests
13 Jun 18
We review heterogeneous agent models of financial stability and their application in stress tests.
No. 2018-09 - The Tipping Point: How the G20 Can Lead the Transition to a Prosperous Clean Energy Economy
25 May 18